Electricity supply is likely to be unavailable for many weeks or even months in some remote areas. The 1929 Arthur’s Pass earthquake on the Poulter Fault. You will find more information about the Alpine Fault, evidence of past earthquakes, and what preparations are being made for a coordinated response across the South Island on the Project AF8 website. It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California’s San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand's South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country. Develop a plan about for what you need in order to be prepared. This earthquake will occur with no recognisable warning. Preparing for an Alpine Fault earthquake. Magnitude 8 or larger, geologists said in a special edition of the New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics last year. There will be liquefaction and widespread ground damage. Spot the fault. Huge sediment and gravel deposits will have downstream effects for years. Agricultural production will be disrupted, and dairy herds may be unable to be milked in some areas due to electricity outage. Alpine has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours 7 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 29 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 767 earthquakes in the past 365 days The lengthy Alpine Fault, which runs along the spine of the Southern Alps, has garnered much attention as it has a clear geographic record of rupturing every 300 years or so. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. 2. We work with the community to ensure the sustainable use of our natural resources. Our Knowledge of the Alpine Fault . Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … The result is a major earthquake along the Alpine fault. Damaging aftershocks are likely to continue for several weeks afterwards and the event will have disastrous consequences across many regions. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. There is extensive advice on how to be prepared on www.happens.nz and www.otagocdem.govt.nz. Significant building damage can be expected in the Queenstown Lakes District. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] AF8 aims to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in the South Island, planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island, QuakeKit: Investigating earthquake science and technology, Learning from experience and science: Ten years on, Co-ordinated Planning and Partnerships Pay Off. They move at a relative rate of about 45mm per year. The South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) Framework is the result of two years of effort by AF8, a collaboration between all the South Island’s Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups, scientists and partner agencies. Get all the information you need to get around Queenstown. The Alpine Fault last got seriously testy in 1717 or thereabouts and before that, in descending order, 1620, 1430 and 1100. Landslide dams with breakout flash flooding are very likely. All communication systems including land and cell-phones may be down in many parts of West Otago. The Resource Management Act sets out how we should manage our environment and forms the foundation for the majority of our work. The best paleoseismic evidence to date suggests the southern and central sections of the Alpine Fault, at the boundary separating the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, typically rupture during very large full-section earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 or larger. You will find the SAFER Plan for this response on the Project AF8 website www.projectaf8.co.nz. The largest city within the highest-risk zone is the nation's capital, Wellington, followed by Hastings then Napier. Provision of emergency medical facilities for many major trauma victims and the rescue of trapped people on roads will be severely disrupted for 3-4 weeks. The 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) earthquake on the Greendale Fault. However, most of the motion on the fault is strike-slip (side to side), with the Tasman district and West Coast moving North and Canterbury and Otagomoving South. It is not intended to replace existing plans within agencies but to provide a coordinated picture of response across the South Island. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Their location, on either side of the fault, has helped us understand how the Alpine Fault moves in an earthquake. This earthquake is a normal part of New Zealand's evolution. The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of stored energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. It will be centred roughly 60km west of Queenstown, in the South Westland area. Find out more. Any actions you take now to be better prepared will make life easier for you and those who rely on you in the aftermath. Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. You can pick out the line of the Alpine Fault on this satellite image of the South Island. The effects will be amplified in South Island mountainous regions and high country where enormous damage can occur to peaks and ridges. Aggradation will deposit high sediment volumes in riverbeds lasting for many months. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . Large earthquakes are less common along the central Alpine Fault, where the plates are not subducting and the forces are accommodated in different ways. The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. It will be felt throughout the South Island and the lower North Island and as far away as Sydney. While the direct impact on people, families and businesses will vary, it is certain that normal life will be disrupted for everyone in the South Island for an extended period afterwards. The effects will be worst in West Otago, diminishing eastward. The last such earthquake took place in … The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. The nature and location of the earthquake relative to major population centres suggest that a relatively small number of people will be killed. The Alpine Fault runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, and is one of the world’s major geological features. Find out more about what rates are used for and how to pay them. magnitude that is much smaller than that expected from the Alpine Fault (Mw=8.2) and that is similar to a potential Hope Fault event (Mw7+). Evidence is growing the South Island's Alpine Fault, capable of devastating earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above, ruptures more frequently than previously believed. Large sections of SH6 (Haast Highway) may be out for up to a year. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. We work with the community to promote the sustainable management of natural physical resources. An earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to be one of the most significant disasters that could affect Selwyn district. Plan to be self-reliant for at least three days – a week or more is realistic. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. The Clyde Dam has been built to very high specifications and it is unlikely it would suffer catastrophic damage. Damage in other parts of Otago will be irregularly distributed depending on the land forms and the built environment. The historical patterns of earthquakes and current research on the Alpine Fault indicate that it is likely to rupture very soon in geological terms. Areas such as Lakes Wakatipu, Wanaka, Hawea, Te Anau, Manapouri, Tekapo, Milford Sound Doubtful Sound are at risk from tsunami induced by massive landslips into the water. Depending on the time of year, the large number of seasonal visitors in the Queenstown Lakes District and other parts of Otago will be completely reliant on immediate assistance. Geologists working on Project AF8 believe that the next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is most likely to be a rupture that begins in South Westland and “unzips” northwards and will probably have a magnitude of 8+ on the Richter Scale. 3. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of 200km in the space of about two minutes," said Holden. Areas such as the Shotover River may be radically transformed. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. Overseas rescue and medical assistance will be required. Here you can find all our publications, plans and reports. Using techniques like these, scientists such as Mark Yetton of the University of Canterbury have found out that major earthquakes happened on the central Alpine Fault in 1100, 1450, 1620 and 1717. Transalpine routes and roads in mountainous areas will be impassable for weeks, therefore, tourists and other travellers are likely to be stranded. However, a large number of people will suffer disabling injuries. In the same way that the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake caused massive landslides to block SH1 for over a year, an Alpine Fault rupture will cut road access through the Kawarau Gorge, Kingston to Frankton, Haast Pass and the Glenorchy Road may be cut in many places, mostly by landslides and dropouts. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. We provide bus services in Queenstown and Dunedin to help you get to where you need to go. https://phys.org/news/2020-12-seismic-zealand-alpine-fault-complex.html The Alpine Fault connects two "subduction" margins where the ocean floor descends into the Earth's mantle. Earthquakes occur about every hundred years on average, along this section of the fault, with the last major earthquake occurring in … Our environment is our most important asset. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … View our live rainfall, river flow and ground water data. We are a young country and learning to adapt to it is a necessity if you and your community are to get through. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. In geology, a fault is a planar fracture or discontinuity in a volume of rock across which there has been significant displacement as a result of rock-mass movements. Large faults within the Earth's crust result from the action of plate tectonic forces, with the largest forming the boundaries between the plates, such as subduction zones or transform faults. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. With an expected magnitude of 8+ this will be considered a "great earthquake" not simply a strong one. If not, take the initiative and contact Emergency Management Otago to discuss setting up a local community response group. Read more. The 1888 North Canterbury earthquake on the Hope Fault west of Hanmer Springs. A study by the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that a portion of the San Andreas fault near Tejon Pass could be overdue for a major earthquake. In areas where the magnitude is plus or minus 9, many tens of millions of cubic metres of rock and scree may collapse from slopes. This includes having stored water, food, medical supplies, alternative means of cooking and heating for your household and your pets. Discover more about the Otago region, the Otago Regional Council and the councillors who represent you. Get all the information you need to get around Dunedin. A study released by NIWA in 2018 found evidence of tsunami up to 5m high caused by landslides into Lake Tekapo, which scientists believe will be similar to other large Otago Lakes: www.niwa.co.nz/news/lake-tekapo-study-raises-awareness-of-tsunamis-in-nz-lakes. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. You can find the application forms here. People trapped on roads and tracks, or in accommodation will need to be looked after where they are for days due to road blockages, airport damage, and limited means of transportation. The alpine fault may rupture along part of its length, with lower magnitude, and be followed shortly by rupture of the rest. The future of our beautiful region starts with protecting and caring for it today. The Alpine Fault marks the boundary of the Pacific and Australian Plates. The pressure has been continually building for about 280 years since it was last released by a large earthquake in 1717 AD. Satellite based telephone systems will initially be the main means of communication. The Wakatipu including Queenstown could become completely isolated if the airport is damaged. Two very large earthquakes or a series of large earthquakes are also realistic scenarios. Many rivers and streams will become impassable. The rupture of another faultline nearby may trigger it, but we will only know this afterwards. A sudden onset national civil defence emergency of long duration will be called. "By comparison, the Kaikōura Earthquake in 2016 ruptured a total fault length of … Residents of Otago are a key contributor to our funding through rates. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. Alpine Fault movement. All these cities have experienced severe earthquakes since European settlement. Analysis of sediments deposited by previous Alpine Fault earthquakes shows that the faultline ruptures on a remarkably regular basis, on average at intervals around 300 years. The Alpine Fault earthquake will be but one event of many different types of natural hazard events that will occur in New Zealand's future. New evidence of a 19th century earthquake on New Zealand's Alpine fault suggests that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. 1 December 2020–A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand’s South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country.But new evidence of a 19 th century earthquake indicates that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. The South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response (SAFER) Framework provides a concept of coordination of response and priority setting across all six South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Groups and their partner organisations in the first seven days of response. This is not a regular pattern, but enough to suggest there is a high probability of a large earthquake … And … The map below indicates the range of the earthquake and its shaking intensity (shown in Roman numerals). The Pacific Plate on the easterly area of New Zealand is moving westwards and the Australian Plate, on the western side of New Zealand moves eastwards. Countless landslides can be expected of all sizes. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12 Read more. The Alpine Fault runs right through the heart of New Zealand's glacier county on the country's south island. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. At present, the response spectra from a great scenario earthquake from the Alpine fault can only be estimated from groundmotion - prediction equations (GMPEs) based on local and overseas earthquake records. AF8 [Alpine Fault Magnitude 8] is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to build a collective resilience and preparedness to the next Alpine Fault earthquake event. Future Earthquake Predictions. You are represented by 12 councillors, elected to govern the Council for the people of Otago. Any ski-fields that were operating at the time of the rupture will pose severe rescue difficulties. Water, sewerage, energy, transport, health, and social services are likely to be disrupted for weeks. The council's emergency management team has been working with Selwyn communities to get ready. It is to be expected that medical services and other civil defence emergency services will be overwhelmed and severely inhibited in their rescue efforts by the scale of damage to roads and buildings. Look at your home, property or business and develop scenarios about the risk factors. If you would like to know more, there are a series of short presentations by scientists who have been researching the Alpine Fault and the impacts of the next rupture. View the latest news and events from Otago Regional Council. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8] is a collaborative effort to save lives by planning and preparing a coordinated response across the South Island after a severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault. An Alpine Fault earthquake will be felt by every South Islander and likely many North Islanders, too. 4. GNS scientists have calculated a 30% likelihood of the fault line rupturing in the next 50 years. Less intense shaking from aftershocks will continue for months. The 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, which ruptured parts of The Humps, the Hundalee, Hope, Jordan Thurst, Papatea, Kekerengu and Needles faults. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, so we're already a little overdue for one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand's modern history. Email info@otagocdem.govt.nz or phone 0800 474 082, Transitions from 'deemed permit' to RMA consent, Resource consenting practice and guidance notes, Get involved in the development of ORC’s new Regional Policy Statement, Otago Civil Defence and Emergency Management, www.youtube.com/channel/UC3nsXLqxO5OGcYCmEcS56sA, www.niwa.co.nz/news/lake-tekapo-study-raises-awareness-of-tsunamis-in-nz-lakes. Many other roads will be affected. Alpine has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours 7 earthquakes in the past 7 days; 29 earthquakes in the past 30 days; 767 earthquakes in the past 365 days Ready to apply for a resource consent? Rock avalanches falling into the water bodies may cause tsunami in lakes, rivers, and fiords. In some places the force will result in a horizontal earth shift of up to 8 metres, and a vertical displacement of 4 metres. Snow on the mountains of the Pacific plate contrasts with the lower land of the Australian plate. At this point the surfaces of the two plates making up the South Islands alpine fault meet. Check on the Emergency Management Otago website to see whether the area you live has a community response plan. Those dates were … Expect many bridges to fail west of Queenstown, Wanaka/Hawea no bridge design performs well during a fault rupture. Carbon dating confirms that the last severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups across the South Island are working together to plan a coordinated response to the next severe Alpine Fault earthquake. www.youtube.com/channel/UC3nsXLqxO5OGcYCmEcS56sA. As in any disaster some people may suffer terribly, and others will profit. A new model has simulated the disruption a major Alpine Fault earthquake would have on the South Island's transport network - cutting off the West Coast for at least a week. A major problem constraining repair and rebuilding will be the shortage of trades people and materials. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. The length of the rupture will be … The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California’s San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. Damage to hydro electrical generation plants and transmission lines will result in an immediate shutdown of South Island power generation and widespread disruption of reticulation. The average slip rates in the fault's central region are abo… Image / GNS Science The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake (pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as the Alpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. Cessation of most commercial activity may occur in many parts of the South Island, however, many local economies will be maintained solely by recovery activities. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] It is the boundary between the Pacific … As these two plates move against each other enormous pressure builds up which must eventually be released through earth movement. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. Roads will suffer serious damage, some areas will be become isolated immediately. Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. 3.0 magnitude earthquake 2019-12-10 05:15:01 UTC at 05:15 December 10, 2019 UTC Location: Epicenter at 30.983, -103.621 45.2 km from Pecos (28.2 miles) Encourage others to do likewise. 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